Three Numbers Pointing to a Blue Wave (with special guest David Nir of The Downballot)

From the desk of Bibek, Senior Digital Strategist

This week’s guest post comes from David Nir of The Downballot, and I’ll be honest, I’m a huge fan. If you want to understand what’s actually happening in elections below the top of the ticket, David is who you read. Take it away, David.

There’s so much noise, and not nearly enough signal, when it comes to figuring out what might happen in next month’s (!) midterms. But after closely studying elections for more than 20 years, there are a few metrics I’ve come to value—and all of them are pointing toward a major Democratic wave.

1. Special elections. Since Donald Trump returned to the White House, Democratic candidates across the country have outperformed the presidential results in their districts by an average of 13 points.
   
2. The generic congressional ballot. This question frequently asked by pollsters asks simply, will you vote for the Democrat or for the Republican for Congress this fall? My favorite aggregate has Democrats leading by 8 points.
   
3. Primary turnout. Far more Americans voted in Democratic primaries than in Republican primaries this year. In a groundbreaking new analysis at my site, The Downballot, we showed that this disparity suggests a political environment that favors Democrats by 13 points this year.

To put things in perspective, Democrats won the national popular vote for the House in 2018—the last big “blue wave”—by 8.6 points. The measures above all suggest a similar landslide, and perhaps an even bigger one.

But as with everything in politics, there’s always uncertainty. There’s no such thing as an iron-clad forecast. That’s why smart campaigners never take anything for granted and always run through the tape as hard as they can.

So as we head down the final stretch, Democrats should be feeling the wind at their backs—but there’s always more work to be done.

Sincerely,

David Nir