Dear MoveOn member,
Did you see Steve Kornacki’s warning about the election?
NBC News National Political Correspondent Kornacki’s polling average shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 2 points nationwide.1 But Kornacki reminded his viewers that, in 2016, Trump lost the popular vote and still won the Electoral College—and the presidency.2
That’s not the only piece of bad news.
Right now, Harris’s biggest polling leads in battleground states are in Michigan and Wisconsin, both must-win states.3 But Harris’s lead in those states could be a mirage.
At this point in the race in 2016, Clinton had a big polling lead over Trump in those states. But Trump voters were “underestimated in the polls,” and Trump ended up winning both Michigan and Wisconsin—and the presidency.4
Kendall, the bottom line is this: This Electoral College is biased in favor of Republicans, the polls are uncertain, and the only thing we know for sure is that the election is a toss-up and will be won or lost by a tiny margin of votes in a small number of battleground states.
Thankfully, MoveOn is working to turn out the precise voters who will make the difference this election: people with progressive values who do not consistently vote. That’s MoveOn’s special sauce—engaging these voters on the issues they care about most, convincing them that their voices and votes matter, and getting them to the polls.
This election will come down to the wire, and we are running out of time to reach voters. Will you start a $7 weekly donation to MoveOn right now to help elect Vice President Harris and defeat Trump and the MAGA movement? When you make a weekly donation, we’ll send you a free MoveOn tote bag as a thank you!
Yes, I’ll start a weekly donation (and get a free MoveOn tote bag)!
No, I can’t make a weekly donation.
Yes, Vice President Harris had a phenomenal debate last week.
Yes, Vice President Harris has a slight lead in the national polls.
Yes, Vice President Harris has momentum on her side (including winning the endorsement of Taylor Swift right after the debate).
We hate to rain on your parade. Nate Silver, one of the nation’s foremost elections forecasting experts, gives Trump a 59.7% chance of winning the Electoral College. According to the latest update to his highly respected, nonpartisan model, Vice President Harris has only a 40.0% chance of victory.5
Our rights and freedoms are on the line, and what we are doing right now to elect Harris is simply not enough. Each and every one of us needs to go the extra mile to win this election and save our democracy. And if we come together, we can absolutely do it.
As The New York Times puts it, the election will be decided by one thing: “it’ll be about turnout.”6
And that’s exactly what MoveOn’s plan does: turn out people with progressive values who do not consistently vote.
This year, MoveOn is focusing on “surge voters” in battleground states—people who became active for the first time, or more active, after the 2016 election. And then narrowing it down even more, we are prioritizing young voters and voters who skipped voting in the 2016 and/or 2022 elections.
Young people are aging into the electorate and are voting at a higher rate than previous generations did at their age, and they reject MAGA by 20-point margins.7 If they vote, they will deliver the margin we need to win.
Now, with exactly seven weeks to go until Election Day, will you start a $7 weekly donation to help MoveOn reach voters in the crucial battleground states that will decide this election? As a thank you for becoming a weekly donor, MoveOn will send you a free tote bag as a token of our appreciation.
Yes, I’ll start a weekly donation (and get a free MoveOn tote bag)!
No, I can’t make a weekly donation.
Thanks for all you do.
–Mohammad, Jensine, Gabi, Matthew, and the rest of the team
Sources:
1. “Steve Kornacki: What the road to 270 looks like for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump,” YouTube, September 15, 2024
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5DvcCjRqsac
2. Ibid.
3. Ibid.
4. Ibid.
5. “Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast,”Silver Bulletin, September 17, 2024
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
6. “Turnout Data Reveals the Core of Democrats’ Success in Special Elections,” The New York Times, February 3, 2024
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/02/upshot/special-elections-democrats-turnout-2024.html
7. “Gen Z might be the MAGA movement’s undoing,” The Washington Post, January 28, 2024
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/01/28/genz-poll-republicans/
Want to support MoveOn? The MAGA right is declaring war, and Project 2025 is their battle plan. Project 2025 threatens our rights, attacks communities of color, hurts middle- and working-class families, and undermines our democracy. But we will not back down or let Trump steamroll our nation.
Will you donate to power MoveOn’s election plan, stop Trump, and ensure Project 2025 is never enacted?
MOVEON POLITICAL ACTION, https://pol.moveon.org/. Not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee. MoveOn Political Action – PO Box 96142, Washington, D.C. 20090-6142.